Why Demand Forecasting Is Becoming a Critical Skill in NHS Procurement

Demand forecasting has traditionally played a limited role in NHS procurement, often constrained by historical usage data and short term planning cycles. In recent years however forecasting has become increasingly important as the NHS faces tighter budgets, variable demand and greater expectations around service continuity.

From reactive ordering to proactive planning

Many procurement teams have historically operated in a reactive environment, responding to urgent requests, shortages or seasonal spikes as they arise. While this approach can work in stable conditions, it becomes fragile during periods of demand volatility such as winter pressures, workforce disruption or unexpected surges in elective activity.

In 2025 there is growing recognition that proactive demand planning can reduce risk, smooth expenditure and improve patient outcomes by ensuring the right products are available at the right time.

The challenge of inconsistent demand signals

One of the biggest barriers to effective forecasting is the fragmentation of demand signals across trusts, departments and care settings. Usage patterns differ significantly between hospital wards, community services and outpatient clinics. Without integrated data, procurement teams are often forced to rely on incomplete or outdated information.

As care delivery continues to shift into community and neighbourhood settings, forecasting models must account for more delivery points and more varied consumption patterns.

The role of data and digital systems

Improved digital systems are starting to change this picture. Centralised ordering platforms, inventory management tools and usage tracking provide procurement teams with more granular visibility into consumption trends.

When combined with clinical activity data, this information enables more accurate forecasting and better alignment between procurement, logistics and service delivery. Over time this can reduce emergency purchasing, minimise waste and improve supplier planning.

What this means for suppliers

Better demand forecasting benefits suppliers as well as the NHS. Clearer forward visibility allows manufacturers and distributors to plan production, staffing and logistics more effectively. It also reduces the likelihood of last minute orders and urgent deliveries, which are costly for both sides.

Suppliers that can support forecasting through data sharing, flexible capacity and collaborative planning are likely to be viewed as stronger long term partners.